Market insights | July 2026

One of the biggest long-term drivers of property values is population growth. CBRE is forecasting New Zealand's population to grow by around 560,000 people over the next decade. More people ultimately mean more demand for homes, land and infrastructure.

The important question isn't whether New Zealand will grow—it's where those people choose to live. For me, Tasman is well positioned.

The Tasman region continues to attract people looking for a better lifestyle, a warmer climate, outdoor recreation and more space. Council planning also reflects this, with Tasman District Council forecasting significant growth over the coming decades and planning for thousands of additional homes to accommodate future residents.

I'm already seeing that trend play out in the market. Over my last six lifestyle property sales, every purchaser has come from outside the Tasman region. Buyers have relocated from Southland, Christchurch, Otago and even Australia. While there has been genuine interest from local buyers, it has consistently been the out-of-town buyers who have put pen to paper and made the move. I don't think that's by chance.

People are increasingly looking for lifestyle, and Tasman offers something that's becoming harder to find elsewhere—space, climate, productive land and a relaxed way of living without sacrificing access to quality services. Not to mention, our property prices are significantly lower than other areas in Australia, Wanaka and Queenstown.

The section market has been slightly different. Enquiry has been split fairly evenly between local and out-of-town buyers, however local purchasers are making up the majority of completed sales. Many are building family homes and are wanting to build large sheds with distance between the main dwelling.

Bare land has also remained in strong demand. Most buyers have been local purchasers searching for 5–50 hectare horticultural blocks or getaway blocks, while I've also seen a noticeable increase in buyers from Marlborough looking for large grazing land.

No one can predict exactly what property prices will do over the next 12 months. Interest rates, confidence and the wider economy will all play their part. But when I look beyond the short-term headlines, I see a market supported by solid fundamentals:

• New Zealand's population continues to grow.

• Tasman is attracting a growing share of people choosing lifestyle over city living.

• Demand is increasingly coming from outside the region.

• Quality lifestyle property remains limited.

That's why I remain optimistic about the long-term outlook for Tasman property. Markets will always move in cycles, but population growth and migration into desirable regions like ours are the foundations that support property values over time.

Dylan Monopoli